Sargodha University MA Economics Paper-VIII Econometrics Theory and Application Past Papers 2015
Here you can download Past Papers of Paper-VIII Econometrics Theory and Application, MA Economics Part Two, 1st & 2nd Annual Examination, 2015 University of Sargodha.
Econometrics Theory and Application UOS Past Papers 2015
M.A. Economics Part – II
Paper-VIII(Econometrics)
1^{st} Annual Exams.2015
Time: 3 Hours Marks:100
Note: Objective part is compulsory. Attempt any four questions from subjective parts
Objective Part
Q.1:Write short answers of the following on your answer sheet in two lines only. (2*10)
- Stochastic Error Terms
- Spurious Regression
- Serial Correlation
- Forecast Error
- Bogus Equation Approach of Identification
- Coefficient of Determination
- ARIMA Process
- Perfect Multicollinearity
- Standardized Coefficients
- Gauss-Markov Teorem
Subjective Part
Q.2: The following table shows the value of imports (Y) the level of Gross National Product (X1) measured in arbitrary units and the price index of imported goods (X2), over the twelve-year period 1960-71 for a certain country.3
1960 | 1961 | 1962 | 1963 | 1964 | 1965 | 1966 | 1967 | 1968 | 1969 | 1970 | 1971 | |
Y | 57 | 43 | 73 | 37 | 64 | 48 | 56 | 50 | 39 | 43 | 69 | 60 |
X1 | 220 | 215 | 250 | 241 | 305 | 258 | 354 | 321 | 370 | 375 | 385 | 385 |
X2 | 125 | 147 | 118 | 160 | 128 | 149 | 145 | 150 | 140 | 115 | 155 | 152 |
- Estimate the import function Y = b_{0} + b_{1}X_{1} + b_{2}X_{2}+U
- What is the economic meaning of your estimates?
- Conduct tests of significance for the regression estimates at 5 percent and 1 percent levels of significance.
- Compute the coefficient of multiple determination
Q.3: In this study on the labor hours spent by the FDIC (federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) on 91 book examinations, R.J. Miller estimated the following function:
In y = 2.41 + 0.3674 In X_{1} + 0.2217 In X_{2} + 0.0803 In X_{3}
(0.0477) (0.0628) (0.0287)
– 0.1755D_{1} + 0.2799D_{2} +0.5634D_{3} – 0.2572D_{4} R^{2} = 0.766
(0.2925) (0.1044) (0.1657) (0.0787)
R^{2} = 0.766
Where Y =FDIC examiner Labor hours
X_{1 }= total assets of bank
X_{2} = total number of office in bank
X_{3} = ratio of classified loans to total loans for bank
D_{1} = 1 if management rating was “good”
D_{2} = 1 if management rating was “fair”
D_{3} = 1 if management rating was “Satisfactory”
D_{4} = 1 if examination was conducted jointly with the state.
The figures in parentheses are the estimated standard errors.
- Interpret these results b. Is there any problem in interpreting the dummy variables in this model since Y is in the log form?
- How would you interpret the dummy coefficients?
Q.4: Given the model:
Y1 = α_{1} +α_{2} Y_{2} + U_{1} (1)
Y2 =β_{1} + β_{2}Y_{1} +β_{3}X+U_{2} (2)
And data is:
Y_{1} | 8 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
Y_{2} | 12 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
X | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Estimate α_{1} and α_{2} by the most appropriate method. Can you estimate β_{1}, β_{2} and β_{3}? Give reason.
Q.5:(a) Define Forecasting and explain its types.
- Given the following data
Years | 1965 | 1966 | 1967 | 1968 | 1969 | 1970 | 1971 | 1972 |
C | 236 | 254 | 267 | 281 | 290 | 311 | 325 | 335 |
Y_{d} | 257 | 275 | 293 | 309 | 319 | 337 | 350 | 364 |
Where C= 54.239 + 0.774 Yd
- Forecast the level of consumption for year 1973 if Y_{d} is 380.
- Estimate the variance of unconditional forecast error for year 1973.
Q.6: (a) Discuss the remedial measures of Autocorrelation.
- Test for Autocorrelation by the Durbin-Watson test for the following data.
Consumption(C) | 236 | 254 | 267 | 281 | 290 | 311 | 325 | 335 | 355 | 375 | 401 | 431 |
Income (Y) | 257 | 275 | 293 | 309 | 319 | 337 | 350 | 364 | 358 | 405 | 437 | 469 |
Q.7:Answer the following questions:
- What is the nature of Heteroscadasticity?
- What are its consequences?
- How does one detect it?
- What are the remedial measures?
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