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Econometrics Theory and Application, MA Economics Sargodha University Past Papers 2015

Sargodha University MA Economics Paper-VIII Econometrics Theory and Application Past Papers 2015

Here you can download Past Papers of Paper-VIII Econometrics Theory and Application, MA Economics Part Two, 1st & 2nd Annual Examination, 2015 University of Sargodha.

Econometrics Theory and Application UOS Past Papers 2015

M.A. Economics Part – II

Paper-VIII(Econometrics)

1st Annual Exams.2015

Time: 3 Hours                                Marks:100

Note: Objective part is compulsory. Attempt any four questions from subjective parts

Objective Part

Q.1:Write short answers of the following on your answer sheet in two lines only.                                 (2*10)

  1. Stochastic Error Terms
  2. Spurious Regression
  3. Serial Correlation
  4. Forecast Error
  5. Bogus Equation Approach of Identification
  6. Coefficient of Determination
  7. ARIMA Process
  8. Perfect Multicollinearity
  9. Standardized Coefficients
  10. Gauss-Markov Teorem

Subjective Part

Q.2:     The following table shows the value of imports (Y) the level of Gross National Product (X1) measured in arbitrary units and the price index of imported goods (X2), over the twelve-year period 1960-71 for a certain country.3

  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
Y 57 43 73 37 64 48 56 50 39 43 69 60
X1 220 215 250 241 305 258 354 321 370 375 385 385
X2 125 147 118 160 128 149 145 150 140 115 155 152
  1. Estimate the import function Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2+U
  2. What is the economic meaning of your estimates?
  3. Conduct tests of significance for the regression estimates at 5 percent and 1 percent levels of significance.
  4. Compute the coefficient of multiple determination

Q.3:     In this study on the labor hours spent by the FDIC (federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) on 91 book examinations, R.J. Miller estimated the following function:

In y = 2.41 + 0.3674 In X1 + 0.2217 In X2 + 0.0803 In X3

(0.0477)           (0.0628)            (0.0287)

– 0.1755D1 + 0.2799D2 +0.5634D3 – 0.2572D4 R2 = 0.766

(0.2925)         (0.1044)           (0.1657)           (0.0787)

R2 = 0.766

Where Y =FDIC examiner Labor hours

X1 = total assets of bank

X2 = total number of office in bank

X3 = ratio of classified loans to total loans for bank

D1 = 1 if management rating was “good”

D2 = 1 if management rating was “fair”

D3 = 1 if management rating was “Satisfactory”

D4 = 1 if examination was conducted jointly with the state.

The figures in parentheses are the estimated standard errors.

  1. Interpret these results b. Is there any problem in interpreting the dummy variables in this model since Y is in the log form?
  2. How would you interpret the dummy coefficients?

Q.4: Given the model:

Y1 = α12 Y2 + U1                           (1)

Y2 =β1 + β2Y13X+U2                     (2)

And data is:

Y1 8 5 6 4
Y2 12 6 8 5
X 4 3 2 1

Estimate α1 and α2 by the most appropriate method. Can you estimate β1, β2 and β3? Give reason.

Q.5:(a) Define Forecasting and explain its types.

  1. Given the following data
Years 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
C 236 254 267 281 290 311 325 335
Yd 257 275 293 309 319 337 350 364

Where C= 54.239 + 0.774 Yd

  1. Forecast the level of consumption for year 1973 if Yd is 380.
  2. Estimate the variance of unconditional forecast error for year 1973.

Q.6: (a) Discuss the remedial measures of Autocorrelation.

  1. Test for Autocorrelation by the Durbin-Watson test for the following data.
Consumption(C) 236 254 267 281 290 311 325 335 355 375 401 431
Income (Y) 257 275 293 309 319 337 350 364 358 405 437 469

Q.7:Answer the following questions:

  1. What is the nature of Heteroscadasticity?
  2. What are its consequences?
  3. How does one detect it?
  4. What are the remedial measures?
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